Rough Consensus with Checkmate
James Check (Checkmatey)
Rough Consensus is a set of conversations between Checkmate, and the brilliant analysts who specialise in markets, macro, and Bitcoin. newsletter.checkonchain.com
Bonds and Bitcoin with Nik Bhatia (RC#12)
G’day Folks,The world is working its way through a very interesting rotation of capital, with the US bond market being a primary recipient. In many ways, this runs counter to Bitcoin intuition, since who in their right mind would want to lend a government money?To talk through these dynamics, we welcome my friend Nik Bhatia of the Bitcoin Layer to the podcast.Nik has a wealth of experience analysing, trading and investing in the bond market, and uses the price signals as a key input into how he
Mar 20, • 1:03:55
Proof-of-Work Security with Bob Burnett (RC#11)
G’day Folks,A few weeks back, I prepared a piece titled Securing the Bag, where I laid out my thoughts on Bitcoins proof-of-work security model, and how I expect it to play out long term. Everything from the declining security budget, to the risk of a nation state 51% attack.Off the back of this, I had the great pleasure of talking through many these dynamics with Bob Burnett of Barefoot Mining. Bob has thought extremely deeply about the mining industry, and is someone who has a great respect fo
Mar 8, • 1:19:19
Bitcoin's Divergence from Crypto with Travis Kling (RC#10)
G’day Folks,Today I had the great pleasure of talking with Travis Kling from Ikigai Asset Management, and having a conversation that was long overdue. I have followed Travis for many years now, and he has no shortage of experience analysing, and observing how this weird market trades.Way back in 2019, Ikigai prepared a repository of onchain analysis papers called Kana & Katana. Yours truly downloaded every single one of these as a PDF, printed them off at work, and read each of them over and ove
Feb 25, • 1:22:29
The Big Print with Lawrence Lepard (RC#9)
G’day Folks,I was delighted to catch up with Larry Lepard once again to talk about his new book The Big Print. Having monitored and invested in markets for many decades, Larry has an incredible depth of knowledge and experience, and a real knack for telling the story from his unique perspective. Larry has put considerable thought into the cause and effect dynamics of fiat money, central banks, and the impact that debasement has on the purchasing power of the average person.The Big Print is a sto
Feb 12, • 1:10:16
MicroStrategy Bewilderment with Jeff Walton (RC#8)
Today, we're releasing the latest edition of the Rough Consensus podcast with Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) covering our thinking about MicroStrategy.Jeff was very early to the MSTR trade, and has done an extraordinary amount of work thinking through the problem. I am a huge fan of analysts who do the Proof of Work, and as we know in Bitcoin, the obvious answer is often not the correct one.We analyse the strategy that Saylor is putting into play, as well as discuss the many nuances of the various me
Dec 30, 2024 • 1:20:39
Memetic Markets with Murad Mahmudov (RC#7)
G’day Folks,Today I jumped on the phone with Murad Mahmudov, who has been around the Bitcoin and onchain world for a very long time. Back in 2018, Murad was the guest on a podcast with Pomp titled the Ultimate Bitcoin Argument, which was one of the key orange pill moments for me personally. I highly encourage everyone who hasn’t heard this discussion, to add it to your listening list.Murad was also the original co-creator of the MVRV Ratio, alongside David Puell, two of the original onchain thin
Nov 13, 2024 • 53:54
The Bitcoin Big Leagues with Alex Thorn (RC#6)
G’day Folks,I had the great pleasure of meeting Alex Thorn in Nashville, where we were joined by Dylan LeClaire to discuss whether the 4yr Bitcoin cycle is likely to persist. This is a question I get all the time, and one which I am still processing my own thoughts around.After listening to a tremendous monologue by Alex on the Galaxy Brains podcast (recommended add to the rotation), I had to pick his brains on how market structure and cycles are likely to evolve in the years ahead.In this conve
Sep 26, 2024 • 1:01:32
Crypto Market Structure with Permabull Niño (RC#5)
G’day Folks,Permabull Nino is one of my oldest friends in the Bitcoin industry. The two of us cut our teeth together studying and developing onchain tools and metrics over many years. PB has an accounting background, and currently works as an analyst and trader for SpaceWhale Capital. He has a wealth of experience working with derivatives, and assessing how capital rotates through the crypto markets.PB is actually a co-founder of the original iteration of the Rough Consensus podcast, which was o
Sep 21, 2024 • 1:08:22
Trading Insights from my Market Mentor, Doc (RC#4)
G’day Folks, today I have something really special for you, and that is I am bringing in the biggest of guns to explore what on earth is going on right now in the Bitcoin market.The latest episode of Rough Consensus is with my market mentor Doc Severson. Doc is a trader with two decades of experience, and is by far the most influential person in my market analysis career.Doc and I discuss the current market conditions, and how it compares to prior cycles. We also break out the charts for some li
Sep 11, 2024 • 1:07:02
Rough Consensus Podcast with Joe Carlasare (Ep #3)
G’day Folks,Today, I had a fantastic conversation with Joe Carlasare, who carries tremendous insight into how the regulatory, legal, and macro dynamics affect global markets, and Bitcoin. We cover so much ground in this conversation, ranging from the big risk overheads in the legal world, to the core drivers of markets today, Turtle Theories, and whether 'cycles' still matter.We dive into a wide range of topics including:* How the regulatory and legal landscape has changed since FTX.* The role o
Aug 29, 2024 • 1:19:13
Rough Consensus Podcast with Lawrence Lepard (Ep #2)
G’day Folks,I had the great pleasure of meeting Lawrence Lepard in Nashville, and it was only natural to follow up with a conversation centred on sound money. Without a shadow of a doubt, I would have been a goldbug if Bitcoin did not exist, and I still hold a position, and an affinity for the yellow metal.In this conversation, I wanted to explore the topics that I think would resonate with my old man (Aussie slang for father). Bitcoin is a completely new thing, and I often find it constructive
Aug 22, 2024 • 1:25:33
Podcast Launch: Rough Consensus with @TXMCTrades (EP#1)
G’day Folks,Today I have a real treat for you. With all the turmoil in markets this week, I wanted to jump on the phone with someone who has done serious proof-of-work understanding the wider macro landscape.This is the inaugural episode of Rough Consensus, which is a set of ad-hoc conversations I plan to have with analysts that I really respect. Few analysts fit the bill as well as TXMC, who is one of my very good friends, and a man who has developed an incredibly deep, data-driven, and long-te
Aug 9, 2024 • 1:08:39
Bitcoin Cycle Top Hunting: June 2024
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit newsletter.checkonchain.comOne of the most requested topics I receive, and at no surprise, is to cover how I think about finding Bitcoin cycle tops. You will often hear me saying that I don’t anchor to a specific price, nor date target, as these are ultimately completely arbitrary guesses.Instead, I want to watch out for the market mechanics that precipitate a bear, and then I will make the assessment that a top might be in. There are
Jun 18, 2024 • 7:14
Stable, For Now...
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit newsletter.checkonchain.comBitcoin rarely goes to sleep like this, and low volatility is certainly not something the asset has a reputation for. Volatility is of course a dynamic beast, and it ebbs and flows throughout the cycle. However there is a simple principle that markets tend to adhere to over time, and Bitcoin is no exception:* Range expansion lead to range contraction - this means that trending rallies or sell-offs are follow
Jun 3, 2024 • 18:24
Masterclass #4: Onchain Originals Price Models
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit newsletter.checkonchain.comOnchain analysis is a relatively young discipline, and the early golden years of innovation kicked off in late 2018 when Coin Metrics released the Realised Cap. For several months after, there was a mad rush by analysts posting research papers and exploring new ways to slice, dice and interpret the incredible world contained within Bitcoin’s database.It is very natural for analysts and investors to seek pric
May 25, 2024 • 1:09
