On May 11th, the block reward in the Bitcoin network was decreased from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC heralding the 3rd halving in Bitcoin history. Block #630000, was the first to bring a decreased reward, and it was mined by the AntPool mining pool group. On Chain Metrics The number of active addresses (and entities) has increased to levels not seen since the 2017 bull market - as has the number of new addresses - suggesting an increase not just in activity, but also in adoption. Not only are we seeing increased on-chain activity from new adopters, but also from longer-term investors; specifically, hodlers and whales. Miners No surprise that ASIC chip manufacturers have caught up to the cutting edge. Miners now have the smallest & most efficient nanometer chip architecture. This is interesting because in the past, if you purchased a miner, by the time it was shipped to you, there would be a better generation making yours almost obsolete. (ahem Bitmain) Now that miners have caught up to mainstream generalized chip fabrication, when you buy a mining rig, you know that there will not be one 2x as fast next month. This enables more predictability and the costs of miners will come down thanks to mass production. Miners will mine and hold, speculating, and covering power costs until they are forced to sell. The mining industry is simply going to look for cheaper & greener electricity like geothermal, hydroelectric, as well as to use up excess power that power-plants where going to the waste in the first place. Bitcoin Hash Rate as of Today. The hashrate will fall that is for certain. Most have made the move back to BCH and BSV. Also the weakest miners will have to shut down unless we see a huge increase in the price, around 15–30% will shut off. Now some miners will turn on again after the first difficulty adjustment takes place. The older machines will eventually shut off as new, many old mining machines, especially S9, will fade away from the market, better machines will come online (some mining farms may have access to free electricity, so they could still run S9.) These new machines will push the difficulty rate higher which will make older machines with less hash-power unprofitable. I foresee this happening in a span from June, July and part of August. Bullish Factors after the halving Facebook Calibra launch in October Ethereum 2.0 Launch in 3rd Quarter. Bakkt Phase 2 Roll-out sometime this summer. China’s Digital Yuan release rolling out now and the rest of the year. CBDC’s set to release to the public at some point in 2021. Possible Cryptocurrency Act as well. More Stimulus Checks? Later this summer. More Fed printing….brrr Bitcoin Upgrades; BIP 340 Schnorr Signatures, BIP 341 Taproot, BIP 342 Tapscript, Stratum V2 —all possible for implementation in 2021. Bitcoin Events impacting Bitcoin 2020 — the halving, proving itself as a safe haven asset, quantitative easing, businesses emerging from the crisis, regulation changes and technical upgrades — all individually have the potential to change its path forever, but all combined at once & no one is going to want to look away. This time, the price may be growing faster, since more people consider Bitcoin as a safe haven asset because of the crisis. There are chances we will never see prices like in the middle of March ever again. History is telling us that the Bitcoin price will typically begin to rise significantly within the 12 months following a halving — I think we will see the real rally in 2021. Now, Bitcoin is a full-fledged asset used by Wall Street companies and I think it’s ready to establish itself in some way. One potential framework for analyzing the impact of halvings is to study the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. The first halving reduced the supply by 15% of the total outstanding bitcoins. That’s a huge impac…