On today’s episode, Clay is joined by financial history expert, Jamie Catherwood, to discuss market forecasting, interest rates, and the efficiency of markets from a historical perspective.

Jamie Catherwood is a Client Portfolio Specialist at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and also the author of the popular blog, Investor Amnesia.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

01:35 - Why we shouldn’t try to make market forecasts.

04:56 - Psychological biases that play into why investors are prone to forecast markets.

08:47 - How we can determine which market forecasts are worth putting weight on.

17:10 - Jamie’s thoughts on the AI craze of 2023.

25:52 - Jamie’s take on where interest rates may head from here.

30:23 - Broader consequences of zero percent interest rates and loose monetary policy.

33:59 - Historical examples of governments restructuring their debt.

40:47 - How investor access to information has impacted the efficiency of markets.

47:53 - Jamie’s favorite book from 2023.

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

• Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members.
• Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at clay@theinvestorspodcast.com.
• Related Episode: TIP505: The Price of Time w/ Edward Chancellor | Youtube Video.
• Jamie’s blog: Investor Amnesia.
• Jamie’s Sunday Reads Blog.
• Marc Andreeson’s article: Why Software Is Eating the World.
• Books mentioned: Seeking Wisdom by Peter Bevelin, Confusion de Confusiones by Josef De La Vega, The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor, and Taming the Street by Diana B. Henriques.
• Follow Jamie on Twitter.
• Follow Clay on Twitter.
• Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here.

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