In this episode, Clay explores When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein, the gripping story of the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). 

Founded by Wall Street’s brightest minds, including Nobel Prize-winning economists, LTCM generated astronomical returns using complex mathematical models and extreme leverage—until a financial crisis in 1998 exposed its fatal flaws. Clay also discusses the dangers of overconfidence, the illusion of diversification, and why excessive leverage can be a ticking time bomb. 

Additionally, he shares details on an exclusive value investing event hosted by TIP in Big Sky, Montana, in September 2025.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

03:34 - How John Meriwether and a team of Wall Street’s brightest minds, including Nobel laureates, built a hedge fund that seemed invincible, using sophisticated financial models and extreme leverage.

25:55 - LTCM’s reliance on mathematical models that assumed markets behaved rationally, leading them to underestimate the possibility of extreme events.

48:30 - How the Russian debt default triggered widening credit spreads, exposing LTCM’s overleveraged positions and leading to catastrophic losses.

54:49 - Why LTCM’s failure posed systemic risks to the global financial system, forcing the Fed to coordinate a rescue with major Wall Street banks.

01:08:17 - The dangers of excessive leverage, overconfidence in financial models, and the mistaken belief that markets always revert to historical norms.

01:15:09 - How to attend our new value investing event in Big Sky, Montana, bringing together passionate investors for deep discussions and meaningful connections.

And so much more!

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

• Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here.
• Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
• Lowenstein’s book: When Genius Failed.
• Mentioned book: Big Mistakes.
• Related Episode: Listen to TIP514: Permanent Supply Chain Disruptions that Will Destroy the Economy w/ Jim Rickards.
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