* Earlier this morning we got the first look at Q4 GDP

* As I suggested on the last podcast, in fact as I have been saying all along

* We did see a sharp decline from the Q3 3.5% GDP

* The consensus was for a 2.2% estimate for growth in Q4

* And we came in at 1.9%

* Quite a way below estimates and psychologically below the 2% number

* Part of the reason was a big drop in exports

* I talked about this last quarter

* One of the reasons we got that 3.5% jump in Q3 GDP

* Was the big surge in soybean exports, because of a drought overseas

* Which created a temporary increase for U.S. beans

* The rest of it was an inventory build, which I still think needs to be worked off

* In fact, I think we're going to work off a lot of it in the first quarter of this year

* That's the first estimate, and, who knows, they may downward revise it the next time they give us the numbers

* If you now take the first 3 quarters of GDP growth, and use the first estimate for Q4

* For the entire year of 2016 GDP grew at just 1.6%

* That is the lowest number since 2009, tied with 2011, at 1.6% also

* If you remember 2011 GDP growth was so weak that they launched QE3 for 2012

* So they ended QE2, the economy started rolling over

* And when they got that 1.6% GDP for the entire year

* The Fed very quickly came out and launched QE3 the following year to goose the GDP back up

*  What are they doing now?  Not only is the Fed not preparing to launch another round of QE

* They are tightening monetary policy

* They're saying, "We're going to raise interest rates 3 times, even though GDP is as low as it has been for the entire "recovery'

* Even though the economy is decelerating, we are going to sedate it with rate hikes


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