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James Lavish, a Wall Street veteran since 1993, says Trump is making a fatal mistake with the U.S. economy. Lavish has been warning about the debt spiral for years, since the national debt was around $30 trillion; now it's over $40 trillion. He breaks down why bond yields are spiking to levels not seen in decades, why the Fed cutting rates won't actually bring mortgage rates down, and why he believes Washington will never choose real spending cuts, tax hikes, or an outright default, instead opting to quietly inflate the debt away year after year.
Rob Wallace and Lavish dig into what that "soft default" actually means for ordinary Americans, why the people who own hard assets like houses, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin will come out ahead while everyone else falls further behind, and why the biggest so-called "foreign" buyers of U.S. debt are actually U.S. hedge funds operating out of the Cayman Islands. They close out talking Bitcoin adoption, why Lavish was surprised by how much OG selling hit the market this cycle, and his outlook for Strive and Bitcoin treasury companies heading into the next bull run.
Here is what we cover:
• Why the Fed cutting rates doesn't bring mortgage rates down, and what actually drives the 10-year Treasury
• Comparing housing affordability in 1980 versus today, and why the real burden has gotten worse despite lower rates
• Why Washington will almost certainly choose a "soft default," quietly inflating away the debt rather than cutting spending or raising taxes
• Lavish's Debasement Pressure Index, and why offshore hedge funds in the Caymans are actually some of the biggest buyers of U.S. debt
• Why Bitcoin adoption disappointed this cycle, including unexpected OG selling, and his outlook for Strive and Bitcoin treasury companies
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Trump, Inflation, and the Debt Spiral
1:32 Why Fed Cuts Won't Fix Mortgages
6:55 The Global Bond Apocalypse Explained
11:19 Housing Affordability in 1980 Versus Today
16:05 ZIRP, Money Printing, and Housing Prices
20:09 Yield Curve Control and Recession Risks
23:27 The Fed Put and Rising Deficits
30:22 Soft Default and the K-Shaped Economy
35:21 Lavish's Debasement Pressure Index
38:04 Cayman Hedge Funds and Treasury Demand
44:48 Underwater Bonds and Treasury Buybacks
50:05 Why Bitcoin Adoption Has Disappointed
52:54 Bitcoin OG Selling and AI Speculation
58:52 Strive, SATA, and Bitcoin Treasury Companies
1:05:21 Closing Thoughts and Cory Klippsten
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Bitcoin News is not a financial adviser. All opinions expressed by us or our guests in these videos is for informational purposes only, and should not be treated as investment or financial advice of any kind. Any information provided during the video is general in nature and does not take into account the viewers specific circumstances.
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