Let’s start with some headline stats which emerged this week.
* The number of migrants to Britain has doubled since Covid.
* 747,000 “permanent-type” migrants moved to the UK last year, the OECD said, up from 488,400 in 2022.
* This marks a 53% year-on-year rise.
* The four countries seeing the biggest surge in migration are the UK, South Korea, Australia, and the United States.
* Note: Three of those four countries are English-speaking. This is something I have long argued: the UK will inevitably see higher than average migration levels because people prefer to go where they can speak the language, and more people have some English than other languages.
Meanwhile, our birth rate has dropped to 1.4 children per woman, the lowest on record.
The net result is that the demographics of this country are changing dramatically and rapidly. Different people means a different culture.
The demographics of primary schools
Migration measures, particularly illegal migration, are not entirely accurate. If someone has entered the country covertly, for example, there's often no record. Nor are censuses entirely accurate. Some don’t fill the census in, many don’t fill it in accurately, especially if here illegally, if they don't understand what it is, or if someone is claiming the single person council tax discount. There is a lot of scope for double counting for people with multiple addresses - students and so on.
However, pretty much everyone who has kids sends them to school. There is no hiding, no double counting and so on, so the numbers you get from the schools’ census are pretty accurate.
White British now make up 61% of UK primary school kids. 37% are of minority ethnic background. The remaining 2% are unclassified. (In secondary schools, minority ethnic accounts for 36.6%).
Minority ethnic includes Asian (13.4% of primary school kids), White non-British (8%), Black (6.5%), and Mixed (7.8%).
Bear in mind that these figures are for the whole UK. This includes primary school kids in remote rural areas, where British ethnicity will likely comprise over 90%.
White British was at 64.9% in 2020-21 and minority ethnic at 33.7%. The numbers are changing fast. From 65 to 61% in three years.
Ten years ago it was 70%.
This 61/37 ratio compares with 85/15 in 2002.
Previously, I extrapolated that White British would be a minority in primary schools by 2035. But with the current trends, especially considering that migrants tend to have larger families than locals, white British could become a minority in primary schools as soon as 2030, or just after.
The demography of primary schools will, within a generation, reflect the demography of the country.
I doubt this is what the majority of British people want.
But it's not a topic that's being discussed, let alone addressed, in the echelons of power. Instead, it's being brushed under the carpet.
Well, it will soon be too late. This is an urgent and pressing issue. Without wishing to sensationalise, the future of the British people and their homeland really is at stake.
Demography is destiny after all.
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