Strategy CAN’T Be Broken — Even at $30K Bitcoin | Dan Hillery
Rob Wallace | Bitcoin NewsStrategy just destroyed a fifth of its Bitcoin per share to protect its balance sheet. Dan Hillery says that is exactly why the company can no longer be broken, even at $30,000 Bitcoin.
Dan Hillery, founder of UTXO Management, returns to break down Strategy's balance sheet, why STRC nearly buckled at $70 before recovering, and why pure-play Bitcoin treasury companies are entering a serious consolidation phase.
Here is what we cover:
• Why Strategy sacrificed a fifth of its Bitcoin per share to fortify the balance sheet
• Why Saylor selling at the bottom in 2022 and again this year is not as damaging as people think
• The real distress moment when STRC traded near $70 and Bitcoin sat around $58K
• Why four years of dividend coverage means Strategy's cash reserve is more than sufficient
• How the $1.3 billion opportunistic cash pile is being used to buy back STRC and MSTR
• Why the balance sheet was built so it literally cannot be broken
• Why common shareholders have felt sidelined and what the path forward looks like
• Why an MNAV above two should not be expected long term
• Whether the other preferreds will be retired and why STRC is the clear focus
• Why STRC has struggled to reclaim par even after recovering from the 70s
• Whether it is healthy for Strategy to be buying back this much of its own STRC
• The real composition of STRC buyers and whether the 80/20 retail split still holds
• Comparing STRC to SEDA and why their yields cannot be judged apples to apples
• Strategy achieving net zero debt and why that milestone matters
• Why the era of pure-play leveraged Bitcoin equities is ending
• How many Bitcoin treasury companies will realistically survive
• The MetaPlanet compensation controversy and shareholder revolt
• DeFi products built on STRC, the Buck stablecoin story, and the June crash
• Why Bitcoin and gold's correlation just hit its highest level since 2020
• Dan's new fund at UTXO and building fixed income products around Bitcoin preferreds
This is one of the most detailed insider breakdowns of the Bitcoin treasury company landscape you will find anywhere.
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TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Why Strategy Cannot Be Broken Even At $30K Bitcoin
01:02 - Introduction — Catching Up With Dan Hillery
02:48 - How STRC's Senior Debt And Collateral Structure Works
04:48 - Was Saylor Selling At The Bottom Twice Really That Damaging
06:23 - STRC's Recovery From The Mid 70s Back Toward Par
07:02 - The Real Distress Moment — Bitcoin At $58K And STRC At $70
07:36 - Why Strategy Sold MSTR And Bitcoin To Raise Cash
08:05 - Four Years Of Dividend Coverage And The Opportunistic Cash Pile
11:24 - How Strategy Built A Balance Sheet That Cannot Be Broken
11:50 - Preferreds Becoming The Core Of MSTR's Strategy
13:56 - Common Shareholders And Why They Feel Sidelined
16:46 - Why MNAV Above Two Should Not Be Expected Long Term
18:25 - Will The Other Preferreds Ever Be Retired
18:49 - Why STRC Is Strategy's Main Focus Right Now
20:00 - Why STRC Has Struggled To Fully Reclaim Par
22:45 - Is It Healthy For Strategy To Buy Back This Much STRC
26:29 - The Real Retail Versus Institutional Split In STRC Buyers
27:48 - Comparing STRC To SEDA And Their Different Yields
29:48 - Why STRC Issuance Volume Has Slowed Down
32:44 - Strategy Achieves Net Zero Debt — Why It Matters
34:16 - The End Of The Paper Bitcoin Treasury Summer
36:04 - How Many Bitcoin Treasury Companies Will Survive
36:46 - The MetaPlanet Compensation Controversy Explained
39:09 - The Shareholder Revolt And MetaPlanet's Response
40:35 - DeFi Products Built On STRC And The Buck Stablecoin Story
44:15 - Bitcoin's 23% Run And Why It Stuck The Landing
46:47 - Bitcoin And Gold's Correlation Hits Highest Level Since 2020
50:17 - Dan's New Fund At UTXO Management Explained
53:49 - Pitching Fixed Income Products Built On Bitcoin Preferreds
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